Montana State University-Billings released their 23^rd survey polling Montanans who were likely to vote in this year's election earlier this week, and one of the topics asked about by the pollsters was the environment.

The poll specifically talked about the issue of wolves on the Endangered Species List. Some 60% of the 403 people interviewed answered no when they were asked if they believe that the gray wolves should be put on the federal governments list of endangered species.

One quarter of those asked said yes, and the breakdown showed 71% of males and 51% of females opposed the endangered species status.

The controversial issue of allowing snowmobiles in Yellowstone National Park was also a question put before the telephone respondents.

The question was: "Do you support or oppose the use of snowmobiles by private individuals in Yellowstone National Park?"

Some 49% of the interviewees said they support it while 38% opposed snowmobile-use in Yellowstone National Park.

The breakdown showed 66% of Republicans backed snowmobiles in the park while 46% of Democrats opposed this idea.

The poll results have a 5% margin of error.

(from October 24, 2008)

The second round of MSU-Billings election poll results that focus on statewide race and ballot measures were released Friday.

Some 60% of those polled say they would cast their vote for Governor Brian Schweitzer, with just 27% leaning towards Republican challenger, Roy Brown.

The race for Montana's sole U.S. House seat sees incumbent Denny Rehberg garnering 60% of the support with 25% backing Democrat John Driscoll.

Around 41% of those asked say they would vote for the Republican running in their district for the Montana Legislature in both the House and the Senate, compared to the 43% who said they would vote Democratic.

The race for Montana Attorney General has 45% of likely voters saying they'd cast their ballot for Democrat Steve Bullock with nearly 37% picking Republican Tim Fox.

Democrat Monica Lindeen has 41% of voters for State Auditor slot, compared with Republican Duane Grimes picking up nearly 35%.

Almost 41% would vote for Democrat Linda McCulloch for Secretary of State with 35% supporting Republican Brad Johnson.

The results for the U.S. Senate race and Superintendent of Public Instruction were not released because the undecided voters were not accounted for.

The poll surveyed 403 likely voters during four days last week and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.

The MSU-Billings poll showed a trend on this year's political scene, a high number of undecided voters.

MSU-Billings Political Science professor Dr. Craig Wilson said that with the presidential race stealing most of the limelight, many voters just aren't familiar with the other candidates. He added the large number of undecided voters could make or break those races. Wilson says usually, undecided voters tend to vote with their party affiliation.

The latest MSU-Billings poll shows a tightening presidential race in Montana.

Results show that if the election were held today, 44% of Montana voters polled say they would vote for Barack Obama, while 40% would cast their ballot for John McCain.

Meanwhile, 4% say Ron Paul would get their vote while almost 10% of those polled say they're still undecided on a candidate.

The poll also shows Obama has the edge when it comes to the economy with 48% saying the Illinois Senator would be the best candidate at managing the U.S. economy, compared to 42% for McCain.

However, Senator McCain comes out ahead when it comes to handling foreign affairs with 52% saying that McCain would do a better job, while 42% think Obama would.

When asked about the current campaign, 43% of the respondents said that McCain has run the most negative campaign, compared to Obama's 19%.

MSU-Billings Political Science professor Dr. Craig Wilson said that Obama's five trips to Montana, plus his aggressive advertising campaign in Montana gives him a chance to win here.

"If you look at the amount of radio and TV ads being bought, it's four, five times more for Obama in Montana than it is for McCain, plus all the people he's got on the ground, plus all of the mailings that've been coming to your house and the turn out the vote campaign."

The poll surveyed 403 likely voters during four days last week and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%.

The campaigns were quick to react to Thursday's MSU-Billings poll.

Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes was stumping for Obama in Billings, and said that he was not surprised by the poll numbers.

Hynes finished second to Obama in the Democratic Primary for a U.S. Senate seat in 2004 and was he first elected official to publicly call on Obama to run for President.

Meanwhile, Montana's News Station spoke with McCain's national director of strategy about the poll results via satellite.

"I think you're seeing the results of two things. The polls obviously are swinging around a lot as we enter a really pivotal time in this election where a lot of voters, especially late-deciding voters like women and young people are sort of tuning in for the first time to figure out how they're going to vote" explained Sarah Simmons. "So, as you see these polls swinging around, they're also being affected by sort of other environmental factors like what's happening on the stock market...what's happening on Wall Street. As voters tune into those things, we think the polls are going to turn around."

The McCain campaign said he'll carry the state regardless of the poll. Sine 1948, only two Democrats have won the presidential election in Montana.

(from October 23, 2008)

A new poll released today shows Montana is leaning towards Senator Barack Obama in the Presidential race.  Just over 400 likely voters in Montana were asked a variety of questions on the upcoming election. 

The question regarding voting for President was phrased:  "If this year's presidential election Montana were being held today for whom do you think you would vote for."  The names of all the candidates were read and Barack Obama's and John McCain's names were rotated in the order in which they were read.  A plurality (44.4%) of those polled said "Obama."  The results for this question fall within the +/- 5% margin of error for this survey.

Barack Obama  44.4%

John McCain  40.2%

Ron Paul  4.2%

Ralph Nader  .7%

Bob Barr  1%

Undecided  9.5%

Statistically Significant Relationships:

• McCain's supporters consisted of 66% Republicans, 29% independents, 3.1% Democrats and 1.9% of those undecided about their partisanship.
• Obama's voters were 60.5% Democrat, 36.7% independents, 2.3% Republicans, and .6% of those undecided about their partisanship.
• Ron Paul's voters were 70.6% independents, 11.8% Republicans, 0% Democrats and 17.6% of the voters undecided about their partisanship.
• A majority (60.9%) of McCain's voters were pro-life, while a majority (76.3%) of Obama backers and plurality (41.2%) of Paul supporters were pro-choice.
• A majority (54.3%) of those planning on voting for McCain rated religion a "5" in their lives, while a plurality (35%) of Obama supporters gave this same response.
• A majority (51%) of women backed Obama, a plurality (47.9%) of men McCain. More women (10.1%) than men (7.4%) were undecided regarding their vote.
• Age was not related to vote intention.

WHICH MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF MANAGING THE U. S. ECONOMY?

A plurality (47.6%) of the interviewees answered "Obama" when asked, "which major party candidate do you feel would do the best job of managing the U. S. economy?"   

WHICH MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATE WOULD DO THE BEST AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?

Statistically Significant Relationships:

• A majority (89.7%) of Democratic voters and plurality (47.7%) of independents replied Obama, a majority (81.9%) of Republicans answered McCain.
• A majority (60%) of women thought Obama could best manage the economy, while a majority (58%) of men said McCain.
• While 92.2% of Obama's voters thought he would best manage the U. S. economy, 87% of McCain's voters felt he would do the best job.

WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF MANAGING U. S. FOREIGN POLICY?

A majority (51.9%) of those polled replied "McCain" when asked, "which candidate do you feel would do the best job of managing U. S. foreign policy?"

WHICH MAJOR CANDIDATE WOULD DO THE BEST AT FOREIGN RELATIONS

Statistically Significant Relationships:

• A majority (90.1%) of Republicans and plurality (48.1%) of independents favored McCain in this area, while a majority (79.7%) of Democrats replied Obama.
• A majority (57.2%) women thought Obama could best manage U. S. foreign policy, but a majority (52.3%) of men said McCain.
• 79.9% of Obama backers said he could best handle foreign affairs, while 93.8% of McCain voters felt he would do the best job.

WHICH MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATE HAS RUN THE MOST NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN

When queried regarding, "Which candidate do you feel has run the most negative campaign," a plurality (43.4%) of the interviewees replied "McCain."

WHICH MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATE HAS RUN THE MOST NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN?

Statistically Significant Relationships:

• A majority of Democrats (77.3%) and plurality of independents (47.6%) said McCain had run the most negative campaign. A plurality (39.5%) of Republicans answered Obama.
• While 78.8% of Obama's likely voters felt McCain had run the most negative campaign, 42.6% of McCain's supporters said the same about Obama.
• Gender and age were not related to opinions about negative campaigning by the major candidates.